The Miami Marlins and Chicago Cubs have now officially swapped right-handed starters. Chris Volstad has been sent to the Cubs in exchange for Carlos Zambrano. The question that begs to be asked now is who got the better end of this deal? Like with a lot of things it depends on your point of view.
The first aspect that should be considered is the financial one. From the Cubs’ side, they were on the hook for $18 million dollars to Zambrano for the upcoming season.
There was also a vesting option for 2013 of $19,250,000 that would have automatically taken effect if Zambrano was in the top four of the NY Cy Young voting this coming season and was healthy at the end of 2012. As we all know there were doubts as to if Zambrano would have pitched for the Cubs this season and even more doubts about him having that caliber of a year. It is unlikely the Cubs would have picked up the option for 2013 voluntarily, so it’s safe to assume that if Chicago hadn’t been able to deal Zambrano at all this year, they would not have been on the hook for those 19.25 million dollars in 2013. In the trade the Marlins agreed to pick up $2.5 million of the $18 million owed Zambrano this season. So from a financial standpoint, the Cubs saved themselves $2.5 million. The important thing to remember there is that they were on the hook for it whether Zambrano threw a single pitch or not, so paying $15.5 million for a guy that’s not pitching for you is better than paying $18 million for the same. In picking up Volstad, the Cubs got a first-year arbitration-eligible player who made $445,000 last year. Based on Volstad’s line from 2011, that number isn’t expected to change much and might actually be exactly the same figure. The bottom line for Chicago is this move cost them $15,945,000. From the Marlins’ side, the financial cost of acquiring Zambrano is $2,055,000 (the 2.5 million promised to Zambrano minus the estimate of what Volstad would have gotten from the Marlins this season had they kept him). It should be noted that Zambrano will be a free agent after 2012 while Volstad is under contract until 2015. From a bottom line comparison it looks like the Marlins came out way ahead here, but it should be remembered that the Cubs now instead of paying $18 million for nothing are paying near $16 million for something.
Now for the side of the story most fans care about which is what team got the better pitcher. Comparing Zambrano and Volstad is not an exact science. There are numbers we can compare though. Volstad is three inches taller but 40 pounds lighter than Zambrano. Zambrano is four years and nine months older than Volstad. Volstad has four years of major league experience, Zambrano 11. Because of that experience disparity, the most practical comparison is the pitchers’ 162-game averages. For every 162 games his team plays, Zambrano averages 32 starts, 207 innings and a 14-9 record with a 3.60 ERA. His other 162-game average numbers are 93 walks to 174 strikeouts and a 1.319 WHIP. For every 162 games Volstad’s team plays, he averages 34 starts, 194 innings and an 11-13 record with a 4.59 ERA. His other 162-game average numbers are 68 walks to 125 strikeouts and a 1.409 WHIP. At the plate Volstad has a 162-game average of a .133 batting average and a .143 on-base-percentage. Zambrano’s 162-game averages at the plate are a .241 batting average and a .251 on-base-percentage. Statistically speaking, Zambrano is the better player but is older. There are other factors to consider here, however.
Anyone who has followed baseball knows of the volatile nature of Zambrano and his walking out on the Cubs during a game last season that led to his estrangement from Chicago. This has been a pattern in his past of inability to handle his emotions. Certainly this must be a concern for the Marlins’ brass. It may be possible that new manager Ozzie Guillen, who has had similar issues himself, may be able to teach Zambrano how to control his feelings when he performs poorly. Perhaps the change of scenery and being managed by a fellow Venezuelan may work some magic on Zambrano’s temperament. Still, there is no guarantee that on a particular day Zambrano won’t fly off the handle and leave the stadium. This is a risk the Marlins have decided to take in exchange for the potential reward of a quality starter in their rotation. Zambrano certainly comes with many more accolades than Volstad left with. Zambrano is a three-time All-Star and a three-time Silver Slugger and has three times finished in the top five of the NL Cy Young voting.
In the opinion of this writer, the Marlins got the better of this deal, but it was something the Cubs were forced to do because of Zambrano’s problems. If Zambrano can keep cool, the Marlins have added a quality starter to their rotation at relatively minimal cost. If he goes ape again and the Marlins have to suspend him and don’t get much out of him in 2012, they aren’t out a lot. The only possible danger here is that if the injury bug bites the Marlins’ established and depth starters on top of Zambrano being a problem, the pitching staff could be a hole in this team. I believe the potential reward is worth the risk.
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