Hanley Ramirez - Which one will play in 2012?

There has been much talk about trading Hanley Ramirez. Many writers have released reports about him being unhappy or demanding a trade, while our front office and manager tell us it is not true. We have yet to truly hear from the source about this, but Hanley has said he is excited for next season and that he will be getting ready to play. Miami beat writers, like @joefrisaro have said it is all blown out of proportion and that Hanley isn't thrilled about the move but is willing to help the team win. @joefrisaro has pointed out that teams have contacted the Marlins about a trade involving "Han-Ram" but they are not moving them, and the Marlins has have not initiated the conversations. Hanley is a superstar. When you are just an absolute stud people leave the magnifying glass on you. I do not believe Hanley is as much a pimmadonna as they make him to be, but I am sure his attitude can use an adjustment (which i think Ozzie Guillen will take very good care of).

Hanleys' numbers are amazing, but when you take a deeper look at these numbers you can get an overall look of the absolute domination he is capable of. WAR(Wins Above Replacement)* is one of my favorite SABR stats. It compares the player to a "replacement level player" meaning a backup from AAA for example. So when you insert the player in question to a lineup that team will have won that much more games. An insane example is Barry Bonds who in 2001 hit 73HR and posted a staggering 12.9WAR. We all know about Hanleys' 2009 season where he finished second in the MVP voting to Albert Pujols. In 2009 Hanley posted a 7.5WAR and Pujols posted a 9.0WAR which is an amazing number and shows you why Pujols finished first. However, in 2010 when we thought Hanley had a "disappointing" year, he posed a 4.6WAR which is still very above average (that same year Pujols went down to 7.5). To compare many people think Jose Bautista is one of if not the best player in the league currently. In 2010 when he his 54HR and put on a show for us, he posted a 6.8WAR and when you think about it most people would assume that monster 54HR year would be better than Hanleys 2009 (Hanley also posted a 7.4WAR from the leadoff spot in the order in 2008). When Joey Votto won the MVP in 2010 he posted a 7.3WAR. My point being is that Hanley has the capability to be one of those "elite" players who can just change the game or a lineup. Even last season in 2011 when he was batting .200 pitchers were still pitching around him. The amount of money a win is worth varies greatly with seasons and the salaries of players and total team wins and from what i see the average value of a win is 2.5 million. In such cases Hanley's 2009 was worth about 18 million dollars. Again some of these numbers are debatable but are a good evaluation of a player.

So now we know Hanley is amazing and when he is on is one of the best players in baseball. 2010 was very exciting for Marlins fans in the beginning, in May we were 30-20 at one point, one game behind the Phillies and consistently ranked top five in MLB power rankings. Many things were said about our team but everyone agreed on one thing, "When Hanley Ramirez comes around this team will be a true contender." We all know how the rest of the season went, and I rather not speak or write about that... Now what do we expect out of Hanley in 2012?

Hanley in 2010 had some bad luck. Believe it or not, in baseball you can take a look at a certain number and incorporate luck. BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) takes a look at all balls the batter makes contact with and puts in play. When BABIP is very low it seems that the ball always found a defender and when it is high the ball seems to find the grass (or the seats) more often. In 2009 Hanley owned a .379 BABIP which is a great number. The league average is usually around .302 (up to .310 from what i have seen) so Hanley was obviously getting lucky. In 2011 his BABIP was .275 ans his average BABIP over his career was about .330 which means he had less luck in 2011. This has a lot to do with how the ball is hit as well. For those of you who watched most of the 2011 season you remember Hanley grounding out a lot and hitting the ball weaker. In 2009 Hanley was a line drive machine and seemed to make much more solid contact, which you have to assume had to do with having a healthy shoulder. With his shoulder healed and another year of growing in to his body (he just keeps getting more and more jacked) I could see him making solid contact again and hitting more line drives. Bill James, considered the father of Sabermetrics, makes predictions based on past numbers on players. He doesn't think much of Hanley next season, predicting a .298/.379/.489 slash line for Ramirez (which looks good) but in only 136 games. He predicts 21HR, 69RBI and 94Runs, but the highlight to be is the .331 BABIP. Most of these numbers were predicted before Reyes signed and you have to imagine hitting behind Reyes and Bonifacio will help anyone's numbers. Also 136 games is low for Hanley who usually plays in 150 games (obviously aside from the 92 last season) so if he remains healthy through the season i expect much better numbers.

When you take a look at Hanleys' plate discipline, you see steady numbers. In 2009/10 his swing % was about 47 and most other seasons his swing % was 41. His contact percentage is usually 81% and his zone contact % (strike zone) is usually 90%. His swinging percentage and most plate discipline numbers have stayed consistent which looks like his luck was not very good in 2011. An interesting number is in 2009 Hanleys' Ground Ball Rate was 38.6% while most of his career it is closer to 50% (which means he was hitting more line drives in 09 which we hope he hits more in 2012).

This can go a number of different ways, and we all hope for a healthy and consistent Ramirez in 2012. Many other things can change like if we sign Yoenis Cespedes and his bat helps our lineup. Stanton should be hitting behind Hanley in 2012 and he should provide great protection, but we do not know where Morrison will be hitting (of if he will be playing with us). Do people really think the Marlins can be successful without him? I do not, for aside from Stanton we lack that true impact bat. People also seem to forget how young Hanley is, he will turn 28 on December 23rd. Twenty-eight years old is still a very prime age, and he still has room to improve before he peaks.

This happy smiling Hanley Ramirez is what we have to hope for to be a force in the 2012 season. His friend Reyes, albeit his biggest threat, and Ozzie Guillen should have him playing hard and having fun.












*I am using fWAR in this article, as FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference tend to have different numbers.Hanley Ramirez - FanGraphs